October 2025 Crypto Crash: What Happened, the Nov 4 Sell-Off, and My Outlook
From euphoria to a cascade: October 2025 recap
Early October looked like a textbook “Uptober.” Bitcoin printed a new ATH above $125,000 (Oct 5–6) on strong institutional interest and robust ETF inflows. Sentiment was euphoric, with risk assets broadly higher.
The tone shifted abruptly on Oct 10–11 when Washington announced additional 100% tariffs on Chinese imports, with accompanying export-control language. That shock flipped markets into risk-off mode. In crypto, leveraged longs were unwound en masse, triggering ~$19B in liquidations over hours — among the largest on record. Estimates of total market-cap drawdown vary, but the hit ran to hundreds of billions in a single session.
By month-end, Bitcoin logged its first red October since 2018 — a sharp break from the “Uptober” narrative — even though spot interest and on-chain participation remained elevated versus earlier in the year.
The fresh shock: Nov 4, 2025 (yesterday)
Just as the market began digesting October’s stress, BTC slipped below $100,000 on Nov 4, undercutting a key psychological level before bouncing. That move amplified fear across majors and altcoins and reinforced the idea that positioning was still fragile after the October liquidation wave. CoinDesk
Macro context hasn’t helped: uncertainty around the policy path after late-October Fed actions and tariff headlines kept risk appetite muted, while crypto-linked ETFs mirrored spot weakness.
Why did the “Uptober” script break?
- Policy shock & geopolitics. The 100% tariff announcement introduced a new risk premium, pushing traders to de-risk high-beta assets.
- Derivatives leverage. Elevated leverage magnified the selloff as cascading liquidations accelerated downside.
- Flows & positioning. After record ETF inflows around the highs, marginal demand cooled, and short-term speculators were vulnerable.
Nov 4, 2025: A New Hit Below $100k
Before investors could recover from October, Nov 4 delivered another blow. Bitcoin fell below $100,000 for the first time since June 2025, after first tagging a low near $102,620 and then breaking that psychological level. The broader market’s drawdown from early October totals over $1T.
What the Chart Says
Market tone: after $19B liquidations and the tariff shock, liquidity thinned and volatility stayed elevated.
Trend context: from a fresh ATH to a sharp correction within weeks.
Key level: $100,000 became the psycho level everyone watches.
My Outlook
Not financial advice.
- Base case: choppy range while the market digests October’s shock; failed breakouts get sold, dips near round numbers attract bids.
- Bear risk: a sustained loss of $100k can extend toward mid-$90k where prior liquidity clustered.
- Repair path: to regain momentum, BTC needs strong daily closes back above $110k–$112k and evidence that panic selling is behind us.
Takeaways for Readers
- Have a plan, not a hope. Define entries, exits, and max loss per idea.
- Respect leverage. Cascades happen fast after black-swan headlines.
- Watch round numbers. $100k is where stops cluster and emotions spike.
Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)
Why did “Uptober” close in the red for the first time since 2018?
Due to a combination of macro shock (tariffs), record derivatives liquidations, and cautious Fed rhetoric, the market lacked sufficient liquidity to sustain growth. Yahoo Finance+2 Reuters+2
Is it true that about $400 billion was “wiped out” in 24 hours?
Yes, several sources estimate the daily market cap reduction at around $400 billion — the largest hit in the current cycle. Exact figures vary by methodology, but the scale of the shock is undeniable. The Street
What happened on November 4th?
BTC broke below $100k, intensifying the sell-off. This coincided with risk-off sentiment and weak flows into crypto assets. Bloomberg
Is this already a bear market?
Technically, some alts have entered a “bear phase,” while BTC is near key support levels. The outcome depends on macro conditions and liquidity recovery in derivatives/ETFs.
Sources/Data Worth Relying On
- ATH and “most destructive October”: CoinDesk; October volatility analysis.
- Tariffs and market reaction October 10-11:
- Scale of liquidations (~$19 billion) and shock “digestion” effect: Bloomberg
- First negative “Uptober” since 2018: Yahoo Finance.
- BTC < $100k on November 4th: Bloomberg (daily market report)
- ETF flows and context of the decline: Investopedia (November 4th summary)
